Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Harmony and nuclear diplomacy (got the joke? No? Wait for it ...)

Last week (well not exactly last week, but I have to pretend to be a good student, so …), Armonie (now you get the joke) introduces us to an article from The New York Times about nuclear diplomacy (totally a mess for me but I won’t go astray) and more specifically the new START treaty. Signed by two ancient enemies (USA and Russia), the new START treaty drafts a plan to shrink the bulk of nuclear weapons of both countries to 1500 warheads. The document was signed in a very fickle domestic and international background, recalls us Armonie. Indeed Obama was facing a lot of international setbacks, so he was trying to have a real diplomatic success here. In the United States, a debate about whether to ratify the treaty took place during the lead-up to the 2010 midterm elections and in the lame-duck congressional session afterward. While some polls have showed public support for its ratification, there has also been organized opposition (notably Republicans).

Here come the questions ...

  • If one of both signatories wage war against the other, could the treaty manage to avoid the conflict?

Everyone on the class agreed to say that a war between Russia and USA was very unlikely (maybe Armonie wants to revive the ancient conflict, but I don’t think so … she seems to be a nice girl). But if such a conflict happened to strike, I don’t think the treaty would avoid the conflict: there are others weapons that can be used. Moreover today, nuclear weapons are a deterrent mean. They shall never been used. Their unofficial goal is to create fear so that any country which has it won’t do anything stupid with (the game theory in International Relations). So if a war is waged, the nuclear treaty will limit the damage. The international community has draft rules about war, and most of the countries abide by the international law. So to my mind, the treaty wouldn’t manage to avoid the war but the use of nuclear weapons (which wouldn't have been used anyway).

  • Does this nuclear treaty better the relationship between Russia and USA?

I don't think it will. Seriously, after a cold war, some disinterest and a spy scandal, the relationship of the US and Russia seemed undermined. At least with the nuclear treaty they won’t fight each other with nuclear weapons and kill us all, but both ancient ennemies won't be friend overnight ... Of course a nuclear treaty is better than nothing, it could be a first step to a long walk together, hand in hand. I mean the countries don't even look alike.They don't have the same culture and the same political regime (is Russia a democracy by the way?), so they could be "acquaintances with benefits" but not "friends".

I love the cartoon.

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